Accelerating economic growth

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) 1) has raised its forecasts for the next few years. It now expects the global economy to expand by 3.9 per cent in both 2018 and 2019, following growth of 3.7 per cent in 2017. This improved outlook is based on the acceleration of overall growth and on the expected impact of the tax reforms in the United States.

The eurozone economy is expected to expand by 2.2 per cent in 2018 and by 2.0 per cent in 2019, compared with 2.4 per cent in 2017. Growth rates of 2.3 per cent in 2018 and 2.0 per cent in 2019 are anticipated for Germany. The US economy will benefit from the aforementioned effects and is expected to grow at a rate of 2.7 per cent in 2018 and 2.5 per cent in 2019. The IMF anticipates slightly slower growth rates for China than in 2017: gross domestic product (GDP) is predicted to rise by 6.6 per cent in 2018 and 6.4 per cent in 2019.

The business climate index published by the ifo Institute of Economic Research, which covers trade and industry in Germany 2), rose from 117.2 points to a record high of 117.6 points in January 2018. Companies view the current situation much more positively but have lowered their expectations slightly for the coming months. The ISM purchasing managers’ index 3) in the USA stood at 59.1 points on 1 February 2018 and had thus fallen slightly. However, it is still at a high level overall.

1) IMF World Economic Outlook Update, January 2018.
2) ifo Institute of Economic Research, January 2018.
3) ISM Institute for Supply Management, February 2018.